Population Growth & the Housing Shortage
The New Zealand population continues to
grow, despite a sharp increase in the number of Kiwis leaving the country.
While population growth is still putting pressure on the housing market, recent
reports of a housing shortage seem to have been overinflated. Real population
growth over the last 5 years has been significantly lower than forecast by
Statistics New Zealand, with the housing gap real but much smaller than first
thought.
According to recent data from Statistics
New Zealand, the net loss of New Zealand citizens has been on a sharp upwards
trend over the last three years. The number of Kiwis leaving the country in the
year ending August 2019 was twice the number who left in 2018 and three times
the number who left in 2017. 13,577 New Zealand citizens departed this year,
compared to 7,265 the year before. While New Zealand has always struggled with
the loss of its own citizens, a weak national economy and increasing
globalisation have both been blamed for this recent increase.
Despite this worrying trend, the overall
New Zealand population still grew by 53,810, which is 9.4% higher than it was
in 2018. Much of this growth was due to migration, with 149,834 people arriving
in the country on a long-term basis in the year ending August. This is much higher
than the 139,095 people who entered in 2018, with an increase of 10,739 or
7.7%. More people also departed on a long-term basis, however, at 96,025
compared to 89,898 or -6.8%.
China is the biggest source of new migrants
with a net gain of 10,406 from the mainland and 699 from Hong Kong. China is
followed by South Africa with 9,438, India with 8,345, the Philippines with
7,055, and Australia with 4,989. Many of these migrants are making the choice
to become New Zealand citizens, with a net gain of 67,387 citizens from other
countries recorded in the year ending August. This figure was a significant
increase of 19.3% compared to the previous 12 months.
Census data just released continues to
raise questions about the real state of population growth in the country.
According to a report by Colliers International, growth numbers are much lower
than the original estimates, with this divergence shedding new light on the
state of the housing crisis. While the forecast population increase over the
last five years was 643,500, New Zealand only increased from 4.24 million
people in 2013 to 4.7 million in 2018, which is a population increase of
457,500.
According to the original figures from
Statistics New Zealand, an additional 238,000 homes were needed between
2013-2018 to provide full housing coverage. According to Colliers, however, the
number should really have been 169,000 homes, which is not too far off the
120,000 dwelling consents issued over the five year period. Even Auckland is
doing much better than first thought, with the actual number of new homes
needed almost half the original estimate at 54,000 compared to 97,000. While
the housing shortage is a reality, it is looking much less pronounced than
originally thought.
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